We’re forecasting the election with three models. var js, fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js, fjs); Kasich had a pretty good showing the past 7 days in the poll below, beating Rubio for 3rd place. "If that was true, that really should apply in phone versus online polls, and for the most part we didn't see that," Deane said, pointing out that Trump should have performed better in online polls than in phone polls, if social desirability bias was a factor, as online polls don't involve talking to a live person. (function () { var opst = document.createElement('script'); var os_host = document.location.protocol == "https:" ? Find the latest presidential election news stories, photos and videos on NBCNews.com. 2016 Presidential Election Polls. fjs = d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0], Let’s see which candidate gains those voters…. So perhaps everyone should have expected that in a year when all political norms were broken, the polls that the political world fixates upon would also prove to be flawed. Donald Trump did win the most electoral votes. Exploration Ideas. On the day before Super Tuesday, we reset the polls to get a fresh look at how our polls reflect what happens in the 11 states that have primaries. "I personally know many Republicans that won't admit that they are voting for Trump," one Virginia Republican told Politico. Come 2018 and 2020, many Americans will likely find themselves taking poll numbers with an extra grain of salt or three. Nate Silver's predictions and polling data for the 2016 presidential election between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. + r; fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js, fjs); }(document, 'script', 'os-widget-jssdk')); In the days since Iowa, Kasich’s numbers went from 4% to 7%. "https:" : "http:"; opst.type = 'text/javascript'; opst.async = true; opst.src = os_host + '//' + 'www.opinionstage.com/polls/2287136/embed.js'; (document.getElementsByTagName('head')[0] || document.getElementsByTagName('body')[0]).appendChild(opst); }()); // ]]> //